2025 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

0·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -13.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.192EPA / play+0.042
  • 38.6%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.304EPA / rush-0.060
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -0.91CPOE-1.09
  • 34.1%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.23
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4KC @ LV30–27KC
2025 · W18KC @ LV12–14RAIDERS
2024 · W13LV @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W8KC @ LV27–20KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2023 · W12KC @ LV31–17KC
2022 · W18KC @ LV31–13KC
2022 · W5LV @ KC29–30KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–KC
LVQ1 15:00626Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:4411100Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 5:5868Punt0–7
KCQ1 2:571884Touchdown0–14
LVQ2 9:17411Punt0–14
KCQ2 6:321791Touchdown0–21
LVQ2 0:1016End of half0–21
KCQ3 15:001163Touchdown0–28
LVQ3 9:003-3Punt0–28
KCQ3 7:02866Field goal0–31
LVQ3 2:36522Turnover on downs0–31
KCQ3 0:0838Punt0–31
LVQ4 13:13514Punt0–31
KCQ4 11:41618Punt0–31
LVQ4 7:0810Turnover0–31
KCQ4 7:0447Turnover on downs0–31
LVQ4 4:4739Punt0–31
KCQ4 2:3600Punt0–31
LVQ4 0:2712End of half0–31

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith10/166700
Kenny Pickett2/2800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty6213.50
Dylan Laube231.50
Geno Smith210.50
Kenny Pickett100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker56330
Ashton Jeanty11130
Jack Bech22130
Michael Mayer12100
Carter Runyon1130
Raheem Mostert1120
Dylan Laube1110
Dont'e Thornton Jr.0300

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes26/3528630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco15573.81
Brashard Smith14392.80
Patrick Mahomes4287.00
Kareem Hunt4184.50
Xavier Worthy11313.00
Gardner Minshew3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce33540
Rashee Rice710422
Brashard Smith55420
Tyquan Thornton12390
JuJu Smith-Schuster33350
Xavier Worthy34350
Noah Gray11280
Marquise Brown24141
Isiah Pacheco12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.25