Closing spread
KC -13.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play+0.042
- 38.6%Success rate44.5%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.304EPA / rush-0.060
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.91CPOE-1.09
- 34.1%Third-down rate39.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.25Points / drive2.23
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 10/16 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dylan Laube | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Carter Runyon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dylan Laube | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/35 | 286 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Brashard Smith | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 7 | 10 | 42 | 2 |
| Brashard Smith | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.25