2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

31·17

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

KC -9

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

LV perspective

Push chance

1.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.086
  • 43.8%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.151
  • 7.6%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +1.52CPOE-3.79
  • 44.9%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.66
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. LV are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4KC @ LV30–27KC
2025 · W18KC @ LV12–14RAIDERS
2025 · W7LV @ KC0–31KC
2024 · W13LV @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W8KC @ LV27–20KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2022 · W18KC @ LV31–13KC
2022 · W5LV @ KC29–30KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LV
LVQ1 15:00975Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 9:3230Punt0–7
LVQ1 8:091369Missed field goal0–7
KCQ1 0:32413Punt0–7
LVQ2 13:23277Touchdown0–14
KCQ2 12:411271Touchdown7–14
LVQ2 6:38513Punt7–14
KCQ2 3:37879Touchdown14–14
LVQ2 0:25211End of half14–14
KCQ3 15:001075Touchdown21–14
LVQ3 9:1536Punt21–14
KCQ3 7:443-5Punt21–14
LVQ3 6:14760Field goal21–17
KCQ3 2:09785Touchdown28–17
LVQ4 13:40831Punt28–17
KCQ4 9:33426Punt28–17
LVQ4 7:2847Turnover on downs28–17
KCQ4 6:29618Field goal31–17
LVQ4 3:1159Turnover on downs31–17
KCQ4 1:5110End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/3429820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco15553.72
Patrick Mahomes591.80
Clyde Edwards-Helaire351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice8101071
Travis Kelce67910
Isiah Pacheco55340
Skyy Moore33340
Noah Gray33300
Justin Watson1331
Marquez Valdes-Scantling11-10

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell23/3324810
Jakobi Meyers0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs201105.51
Ameer Abdullah11111.00
Jakobi Meyers122.00
Zamir White100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers67791
Davante Adams57730
Hunter Renfrow44380
Michael Mayer24270
Josh Jacobs46150
Austin Hooper12140
Ameer Abdullah1120
Tre Tucker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -94.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.98