Closing spread
KC -9
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
LV perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.086
- 43.8%Success rate41.5%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.151
- 7.6%Explosive rate5.9%
- +1.52CPOE-3.79
- 44.9%Third-down rate35.2%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.89Points / drive1.66
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. LV are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/34 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 8 | 10 | 107 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 91 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 23/33 | 248 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 20 | 110 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.98