Closing spread
KC -9
Total
51.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
LV perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.009
- 50.6%Success rate43.4%
- +0.273EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.9%
- +3.02CPOE-2.03
- 49.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 2.71Points / drive2.10
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. LV are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 18/26 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 67 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 22/36 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.04