2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

31·13

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Jarrett Stidham

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

KC -9

Total

51.5

Model margin

-4.0est.

LV perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.179EPA / play+0.009
  • 50.6%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback+0.057
  • -0.019EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +3.02CPOE-2.03
  • 49.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 2.71Points / drive2.10
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. LV are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4KC @ LV30–27KC
2025 · W18KC @ LV12–14RAIDERS
2025 · W7LV @ KC0–31KC
2024 · W13LV @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W8KC @ LV27–20KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2023 · W12KC @ LV31–17KC
2022 · W5LV @ KC29–30KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LV
KCQ1 15:00573Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 12:52940Field goal7–3
KCQ1 7:15833Punt7–3
LVQ1 3:2545Turnover7–3
KCQ1 1:04344Touchdown14–3
LVQ2 14:561474Turnover on downs14–3
KCQ2 6:061489Touchdown21–3
LVQ2 0:4767Turnover21–3
KCQ2 0:0914Field goal24–3
LVQ3 15:001355Field goal24–6
KCQ3 6:553-7Punt24–6
LVQ3 5:0937Punt24–6
KCQ3 3:34733Punt24–6
LVQ3 0:0234Punt24–6
KCQ4 14:04762Touchdown31–6
LVQ4 11:031075Touchdown31–13
KCQ4 6:373-6Punt31–13
LVQ4 6:07812Turnover on downs31–13
KCQ4 4:24526End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes18/2620210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco8648.01
Ronald Jones10454.51
Patrick Mahomes3299.70
Kadarius Toney3268.71
Jerick McKinnon263.00
Chad Henne2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Watson12670
Travis Kelce67380
JuJu Smith-Schuster22350
Marquez Valdes-Scantling36270
Kadarius Toney22180
Noah Gray11140
Blake Bell1130
Jerick McKinnon2301

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jarrett Stidham22/3621911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jarrett Stidham7507.10
Josh Jacobs17452.60
Zamir White144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams59730
Hunter Renfrow77631
Darren Waller26350
Mack Hollins23150
Ameer Abdullah12100
Foster Moreau11100
Keelan Cole1250
Josh Jacobs2350
Jakob Johnson1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -92.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.3%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.04