2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Chris Oladokun

12·14

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kenny Pickett

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.192
  • 44.5%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.304
  • 7.2%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -1.09CPOE-0.91
  • 39.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.25
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. LV are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4KC @ LV30–27KC
2025 · W7LV @ KC0–31KC
2024 · W13LV @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W8KC @ LV27–20KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2023 · W12KC @ LV31–17KC
2022 · W18KC @ LV31–13KC
2022 · W5LV @ KC29–30KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LV
KCQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:5222Turnover0–0
KCQ1 12:1444Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:373-2Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:31736Field goal3–0
LVQ1 4:58612Punt3–0
KCQ1 2:04621Punt3–0
LVQ2 13:3049Turnover on downs3–0
KCQ2 12:322-16Turnover3–0
LVQ2 11:37730Field goal3–3
KCQ2 7:2034Punt3–3
LVQ2 6:19622Punt3–3
KCQ2 4:1539Turnover3–3
LVQ2 2:5748Field goal3–6
KCQ2 1:52718End of half3–6
LVQ3 15:00536Turnover on downs3–6
KCQ3 11:441150Field goal6–6
LVQ3 4:11934Field goal6–9
KCQ4 13:1630Punt6–9
LVQ4 12:213-1Punt6–9
KCQ4 11:2432Punt6–9
LVQ4 10:20733Punt6–9
KCQ4 5:563-6Safety6–11
LVQ4 4:3700Field goal6–11
KCQ4 4:303-3Field goal9–11
LVQ4 3:333-5Punt9–11
KCQ4 2:23451Field goal12–11
LVQ4 1:01426Field goal12–14
KCQ4 0:0822End of half12–14

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Buechele7/148800
Chris Oladokun11/175800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brashard Smith12564.70
Kareem Hunt5142.80
Dameon Pierce4102.50
Shane Buechele144.00
Chris Oladokun100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown36640
Noah Gray35300
Kareem Hunt34210
JuJu Smith-Schuster22130
Travis Kelce36120
Jalen Royals2340
Brashard Smith2420

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell10/2210200
Kenny Pickett1/4301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty26873.30
Kenny Pickett199.00
Aidan O'Connell177.00
Zamir White155.00
Tre Tucker144.00
Shedrick Jackson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Mayer35470
Tre Tucker26300
Shedrick Jackson11110
Ashton Jeanty3570
Tyler Lockett1550
Zamir White1150
Dont'e Thornton Jr.0100
Jack Bech0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

6.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.93
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.85