Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.192
- 44.5%Success rate38.6%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.304
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.7%
- -1.09CPOE-0.91
- 39.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.23Points / drive1.25
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. LV are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Buechele | 7/14 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Oladokun | 11/17 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brashard Smith | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Shane Buechele | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Oladokun | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Jalen Royals | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 10/22 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1/4 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 26 | 87 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.93
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.85