1999 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ray Lucas

6·13

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

44

Model margin

+2.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapColts
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.072
  • 38.9%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.047EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.106
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 40.9%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.88
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.036

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–IND
NYJQ1 15:00760Field goal3–0
INDQ1 10:4615Turnover3–0
NYJQ1 10:26813Field goal6–0
INDQ1 6:521184Touchdown6–7
NYJQ1 0:32514Punt6–7
INDQ2 12:50933Turnover6–7
NYJQ2 8:05619Punt6–7
INDQ2 3:4735Punt6–7
NYJQ2 2:0736Punt6–7
INDQ2 1:25635Field goal6–10
NYJQ2 0:01121End of half6–10
INDQ3 15:00829Punt6–10
NYJQ3 9:3746Punt6–10
INDQ3 7:42750Turnover6–10
NYJQ3 4:04516Punt6–10
INDQ3 0:491347Field goal6–13
NYJQ4 9:001559Turnover on downs6–13
INDQ4 1:393-1End of half6–13

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ray Lucas12/2210200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin19834.40
Ray Lucas3289.30
Bernie Parmalee231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson46560
Wayne Chrebet34210
Curtis Martin36120
Fred Baxter0100
Dedric Ward0300

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning23/3119812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James24743.10
Peyton Manning3268.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison57580
Edgerrin James78530
Terrence Wilkins57390
E.G. Green23290
Marcus Pollard22121
Ken Dilger2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.33