Closing spread
IND -7
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.072
- 38.9%Success rate41.4%
- +0.047EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- 34.6%Third-down rate39.4%
- 40.9%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.28Points / drive1.88
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 12/22 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/31 | 198 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 74 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 7 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.33