1999 · Week 12
Final
Seattle Kingdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
37
Model margin
+1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.149EPA / play-0.070
- 35.1%Success rate39.0%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- 35.3%Third-down rate33.0%
- 37.2%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.03Points / drive1.40
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.164EPA / play allowed-0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 5/11 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 3/7 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Moore | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Bert Emanuel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/44 | 197 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28