1999 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Trent Dilfer

16·3

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

Seattle Kingdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

37

Model margin

+1.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.149EPA / play-0.070
  • 35.1%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.193
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 35.3%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 37.2%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.40
  • 3.3%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.164EPA / play allowed-0.076

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00964Field goal0–3
TBQ1 10:403-1Punt0–3
SEAQ1 8:30521Punt0–3
TBQ1 6:011254Field goal3–3
SEAQ2 14:51937Punt3–3
TBQ2 9:3633Punt3–3
SEAQ2 8:39723Punt3–3
TBQ2 6:223-7Punt3–3
SEAQ2 5:0510Turnover3–3
TBQ2 5:003-3Punt3–3
SEAQ2 3:0730Turnover3–3
TBQ2 2:5333Field goal6–3
SEAQ2 1:0838Punt6–3
TBQ2 0:3200End of half6–3
TBQ3 15:0035Punt6–3
SEAQ3 13:42611Punt6–3
TBQ3 10:3332Punt6–3
SEAQ3 9:33512Turnover6–3
TBQ3 7:263-1Punt6–3
SEAQ3 6:0434Punt6–3
TBQ3 5:2033Punt6–3
SEAQ3 3:2638Punt6–3
TBQ3 2:04867Touchdown13–3
SEAQ4 12:2138Turnover13–3
TBQ4 10:5638Field goal16–3
SEAQ4 9:00837Turnover16–3
TBQ4 5:45616Punt16–3
SEAQ4 3:05426Turnover16–3
TBQ4 2:23310End of half16–3

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer5/115000
Shaun King3/73210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn15573.80
Trent Dilfer200.00
Shaun King3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dave Moore22310
Reidel Anthony24100
Warrick Dunn1290
Jacquez Green1460
Patrick Hape1121
Bert Emanuel0300
Karl Williams0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna19/4419705

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters17643.80
Jon Kitna2168.00
Ahman Green252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sean Dawkins46870
Derrick Mayes35350
Joey Galloway13180
Christian Fauria36150
Mike Pritchard11110
Ricky Watters2670

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.28