2013 · Week 9

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

24·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -16

Total

40

Model margin

+7.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.059
  • 37.6%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.049EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.101
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -1.72CPOE+5.19
  • 31.1%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.17
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB
2007 · W1TB @ SEA6–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001159Turnover0–0
TBQ1 9:19811Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:1049Punt0–0
TBQ1 2:531273Touchdown7–0
SEAQ2 11:50521Punt7–0
TBQ2 9:371184Touchdown14–0
SEAQ2 2:5500Touchdown14–0
TBQ2 2:46229Touchdown21–0
SEAQ2 2:16436Touchdown21–7
TBQ2 1:40414End of half21–7
TBQ3 15:001065Field goal24–7
SEAQ3 9:48996Touchdown24–14
TBQ3 5:00634Punt24–14
SEAQ3 0:5837Field goal24–17
TBQ4 14:47516Punt24–17
SEAQ4 11:37872Turnover24–17
TBQ4 7:5138Punt24–17
SEAQ4 6:131059Touchdown24–24
TBQ4 1:51522Punt24–24
SEAQ4 0:1615End of half24–24
TBOT3-4Punt24–24
SEAOT754Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon17/2316820
Mike James1/1210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike James281585.60
Brian Leonard5204.00
Skye Dawson11414.00
Mike Glennon4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Timothy Wright44581
Brian Leonard44480
Tiquan Underwood23291
Vincent Jackson24110
Mike James2280
Tom Crabtree1121

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/2621722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch211256.00
Robert Turbin8374.60
Russell Wilson6366.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin610751
Zach Miller35490
Jermaine Kearse22431
Golden Tate33290
Marshawn Lynch45160
Ricardo Lockette1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +167.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.7%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+7.11