2013 · Week 9
Final / OT
CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
SEA -16
Total
40
Model margin
+7.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.059
- 37.6%Success rate44.6%
- -0.049EPA / dropback+0.190
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.101
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.9%
- -1.72CPOE+5.19
- 31.1%Third-down rate38.4%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.34Points / drive2.17
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 17/23 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike James | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike James | 28 | 158 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Skye Dawson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Wright | 4 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike James | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/26 | 217 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 125 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 10 | 75 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+7.11