2016 · Week 12
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
SEA -5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.005
- 44.0%Success rate43.9%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.208
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- +4.81CPOE+1.81
- 38.7%Third-down rate44.2%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.88Points / drive1.74
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/33 | 151 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 80 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| George Farmer | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 21/28 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 23 | 87 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 11 | 104 | 2 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.31