2016 · Week 12

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

5·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -5

Total

46

Model margin

+0.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.005
  • 44.0%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.208
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.6%
  • +4.81CPOE+1.81
  • 38.7%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.74
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB
2007 · W1TB @ SEA6–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–TB
TBQ1 15:001483Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 7:343-4Punt0–7
TBQ1 5:54667Touchdown0–14
SEAQ1 2:53623Punt0–14
TBQ2 14:0920Safety2–14
SEAQ2 13:23818Field goal5–14
TBQ2 10:39736Punt5–14
SEAQ2 6:3030Punt5–14
TBQ2 4:24513Missed field goal5–14
SEAQ2 2:10633Turnover5–14
TBQ2 0:43539End of half5–14
SEAQ3 15:00411Punt5–14
TBQ3 13:2736Punt5–14
SEAQ3 11:12526Punt5–14
TBQ3 9:04732Punt5–14
SEAQ3 5:03426Punt5–14
TBQ3 2:30632Punt5–14
SEAQ4 14:03726Punt5–14
TBQ4 11:37319Turnover5–14
SEAQ4 10:14737Turnover5–14
TBQ4 7:01615Turnover5–14
SEAQ4 4:061049Turnover5–14
TBQ4 1:1900End of half5–14

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/3315102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson88010.00
Thomas Rawls12383.20
Tyler Lockett199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham67670
Doug Baldwin78340
Jermaine Kearse15180
Paul Richardson13170
Luke Willson11110
George Farmer1240
Thomas Rawls0100
Tyler Lockett0600

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston21/2822021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin23873.80
Peyton Barber5163.20
Jameis Winston5122.40
Adam Humphries231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans8111042
Cameron Brate45490
Russell Shepard23230
Adam Humphries11180
Alan Cross11100
Cecil Shorts1360
Peyton Barber1140
Luke Stocker1130
Doug Martin2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.31