2025 · Week 5

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

38·35

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.006EPA / play+0.036
  • 43.3%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.064EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -2.55CPOE+4.54
  • 41.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.22
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB
2007 · W1TB @ SEA6–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SEA
TBQ1 15:001068Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 7:57755Missed field goal3–0
TBQ1 4:051032Field goal6–0
SEAQ2 14:08622Punt6–0
TBQ2 11:2232Punt6–0
SEAQ2 9:04521Turnover6–0
TBQ2 6:24759Touchdown13–0
SEAQ2 2:091054Touchdown13–7
TBQ2 0:0600End of half13–7
SEAQ3 15:00477Touchdown13–14
TBQ3 13:01977Touchdown21–14
SEAQ3 7:52680Touchdown21–21
TBQ3 4:12780Touchdown28–21
SEAQ3 0:191261Touchdown28–28
TBQ4 9:48524Punt28–28
SEAQ4 7:20884Touchdown28–35
TBQ4 3:18570Touchdown35–35
SEAQ4 1:0829Turnover35–35
TBQ4 0:53315Field goal38–35

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield29/3337920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White14412.92
Baker Mayfield5153.00
Sean Tucker331.00
Kameron Johnson122.00
Sterling Shepard1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka771631
Cade Otton45810
Tez Johnson44590
Rachaad White44300
Chris Godwin Jr.34260
Sterling Shepard45241
Sean Tucker33-40

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold28/3434141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III10868.60
Zach Charbonnet9364.01
Jalen Milroe100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba891321
Cooper Kupp69590
AJ Barner77532
Tory Horton34391
Dareke Young11360
Zach Charbonnet12120
Elijah Arroyo11100
Kenneth Walker III1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.21