2025 · Week 5
Final
Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play+0.036
- 43.3%Success rate46.6%
- +0.064EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -2.55CPOE+4.54
- 41.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.89Points / drive2.22
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 29/33 | 379 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 7 | 7 | 163 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 81 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 28/34 | 341 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jalen Milroe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 9 | 132 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 7 | 7 | 53 | 2 |
| Tory Horton | 3 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Dareke Young | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.21