2009 · Week 15

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

24·7

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

39

Model margin

+2.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.156EPA / play-0.107
  • 36.1%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.150
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -5.15CPOE-1.58
  • 33.0%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.38
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB
2007 · W1TB @ SEA6–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:5334Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 11:28651Turnover0–0
TBQ1 8:4732Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:491372Turnover on downs0–0
TBQ1 2:59970Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ2 12:51518Punt0–0
TBQ2 10:2839Punt0–0
SEAQ2 8:40980Touchdown0–7
TBQ2 4:31417Punt0–7
SEAQ2 2:4968Turnover0–7
TBQ2 0:52415Field goal3–7
SEAQ2 0:1510End of half3–7
TBQ3 15:001070Field goal6–7
SEAQ3 8:443-1Turnover12–7
TBQ3 7:52122Touchdown13–7
SEAQ3 7:4430Punt13–7
TBQ3 7:11937Touchdown21–7
SEAQ3 2:41626Punt21–7
TBQ3 0:13747Field goal24–7
SEAQ4 11:20838Turnover24–7
TBQ4 8:52848Punt24–7
SEAQ4 3:201383Turnover24–7
TBQ4 0:0700End of half24–7

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman16/2620521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Ward19673.50
Cadillac Williams12665.50
Josh Freeman310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow68930
Sammie Stroughter46460
Antonio Bryant35350
Cadillac Williams11221
Derrick Ward1161
Maurice Stovall1330
Jerramy Stevens0100
Brian Clark0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck27/4625614

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones12655.40
Justin Forsett9556.10
Justin Griffith252.50
Matt Hasselbeck133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Carlson78861
T.J. Houshmandzadeh79730
Deon Butler36300
Deion Branch410280
Justin Griffith12230
Justin Forsett23140
John Owens1120
Julius Jones2500
Ben Obomanu0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.07