2009 · Week 15
Final
Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.107
- 36.1%Success rate40.9%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.15CPOE-1.58
- 33.0%Third-down rate34.0%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.06Points / drive1.38
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 16/26 | 205 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 6 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Maurice Stovall | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/46 | 256 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 7 | 8 | 86 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| John Owens | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07