2008 · Week 7
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -10.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.033
- 37.8%Success rate43.2%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -5.09CPOE+1.84
- 31.4%Third-down rate38.9%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.56Points / drive1.55
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:57 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 9:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 7:30 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 4:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 3:08 | 11 | 55 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 12:48 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 10:08 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 6:32 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| TB | Q2 6:06 | 4 | 25 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 3:12 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| TB | Q2 2:25 | 6 | 45 | Missed field goal | 0–17 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q3 12:32 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| TB | Q3 10:21 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q3 8:11 | 5 | 40 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| TB | Q3 6:33 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q3 1:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q4 14:08 | 15 | 67 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| SEA | Q4 4:34 | 8 | 50 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| TB | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 10–20 |
| SEA | Q4 0:06 | 1 | 17 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 12/23 | 73 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 27/36 | 310 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 23 | 52 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.66