2008 · Week 7

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Seneca Wallace

10·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jeff Garcia

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TB -10.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.033
  • 37.8%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -5.09CPOE+1.84
  • 31.4%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.55
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2007 · W1TB @ SEA6–20SEA

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace12/237311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris6569.30
Julius Jones7426.00
Seneca Wallace263.00
T.J. Duckett1-1-1.00

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia27/3631010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Earnest Graham23522.31
Warrick Dunn13372.80
Jeff Garcia284.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.66