2010 · Week 16

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

15·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

TB -5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.117EPA / play+0.046
  • 38.3%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.072EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.194EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -1.80CPOE+2.31
  • 37.0%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.88
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB
2007 · W1TB @ SEA6–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–TB
TBQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:4230Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:0947Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:431162Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 2:503-11Field goal7–3
SEAQ1 0:2536Punt7–3
TBQ2 14:50652Touchdown7–10
SEAQ2 12:2332Punt7–10
TBQ2 10:31959Touchdown7–17
SEAQ2 6:17621Punt7–17
TBQ2 2:39867Missed field goal7–17
SEAQ2 0:0300End of half7–17
SEAQ3 15:0032Punt7–17
TBQ3 13:281098Touchdown7–24
SEAQ3 6:3867Punt7–24
TBQ3 3:12356Touchdown7–31
SEAQ3 1:281154Touchdown15–31
TBQ4 10:14472Touchdown15–38
SEAQ4 7:56416Punt15–38
TBQ4 6:02626Punt15–38
SEAQ4 1:5235End of half15–38

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst11/186600
Matt Hasselbeck3/42400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch14533.80
Leon Washington11616.01
Justin Forsett8121.50
Charlie Whitehurst351.70
Matt Hasselbeck111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Carlson34270
Ben Obomanu24180
Mike Williams24150
Golden Tate33100
Cameron Morrah1390
Brandon Stokley1160
Justin Forsett2250
Marshawn Lynch0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman21/2623750
Josh Johnson2/21500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount181649.10
Josh Freeman4235.80
Cadillac Williams4215.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow77982
Mike Williams37442
Dezmon Briscoe22280
Cadillac Williams33220
Micheal Spurlock11200
Arrelious Benn11160
Maurice Stovall33121
Preston Parker1250
Earnest Graham1140
LeGarrette Blount1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.61