2010 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play+0.046
- 38.3%Success rate42.0%
- -0.072EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.194EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- -1.80CPOE+2.31
- 37.0%Third-down rate42.5%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.36Points / drive1.88
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 11/18 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3/4 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 21/26 | 237 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 2/2 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 18 | 164 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 7 | 7 | 98 | 2 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 7 | 44 | 2 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 3 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.61