2019 · Week 9
Final / OT
CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
51
Model margin
-0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.018
- 43.6%Success rate45.5%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.119
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.42CPOE+7.05
- 42.2%Third-down rate39.1%
- 71.0%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.86Points / drive1.86
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 29/44 | 335 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Barber | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 12 | 16 | 180 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 4 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 29/43 | 378 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 16 | 105 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 13 | 18 | 152 | 2 |
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 9 | 123 | 1 |
| Jacob Hollister | 4 | 6 | 37 | 2 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.20