2019 · Week 9

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

34·40

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

51

Model margin

-0.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.000EPA / play+0.018
  • 43.6%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.119
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.134
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.42CPOE+7.05
  • 42.2%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 71.0%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.86
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB
2007 · W1TB @ SEA6–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–SEA
TBQ1 15:00866Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 11:30675Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 8:2334Punt7–7
SEAQ1 6:1834Punt7–7
TBQ1 5:271053Touchdown14–7
SEAQ1 0:48946Missed field goal14–7
TBQ2 11:031362Touchdown21–7
SEAQ2 4:324-2Punt21–7
TBQ2 2:343-2Punt21–7
SEAQ2 1:43622Touchdown21–13
TBQ2 0:29328Missed field goal21–13
SEAQ3 15:003-9Punt21–13
TBQ3 13:29522Punt21–13
SEAQ3 10:49585Touchdown21–21
TBQ3 8:031062Field goal24–21
SEAQ3 3:181061Field goal24–24
TBQ4 14:2638Punt24–24
SEAQ4 12:0536Turnover24–24
TBQ4 11:363-4Turnover24–24
SEAQ4 10:38511Field goal24–27
TBQ4 8:19544Field goal27–27
SEAQ4 5:22375Touchdown27–34
TBQ4 4:251075Touchdown34–34
SEAQ4 0:46548Missed field goal34–34
SEAOT1170Touchdown34–40

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston29/4433520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones18673.71
Peyton Barber4153.80
Jameis Winston284.00
Chris Godwin Jr.188.00
Dare Ogunbowale111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans12161801
Chris Godwin Jr.79610
Breshad Perriman48421
Ronald Jones22150
Dare Ogunbowale11120
Tanner Hudson12120
Antony Auclair12110
T.J. Logan1120
Scott Miller0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson29/4337850

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson161056.60
Russell Wilson12121.00
Rashaad Penny4123.00
DK Metcalf177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett13181522
DK Metcalf691231
Jacob Hollister46372
Chris Carson23280
Luke Willson22200
David Moore24180
Rashaad Penny0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.20