2022 · Week 10
Final
Allianz Arena · outdoors
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play-0.030
- 44.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.208
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- +5.46CPOE+0.30
- 37.4%Third-down rate38.1%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.05Points / drive1.63
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/33 | 275 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 6 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/29 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.82