Closing spread
TEN -10.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.110
- 40.1%Success rate35.3%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.177
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- 39.0%Third-down rate29.7%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
- 1.52Points / drive1.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed+0.100
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/36 | 179 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 26 | 113 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Joey Kent | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 19/35 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Terry Kirby | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 6 | 12 | 90 | 1 |
| Terry Kirby | 4 | 6 | 88 | 1 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 4 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Zola Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.52