1999 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

33·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

TEN -10.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.110
  • 40.1%Success rate35.3%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.177
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.042EPA / play allowed+0.100

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
TENQ1 15:001162Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 10:1846Punt7–0
TENQ1 8:36621Punt7–0
CLEQ1 5:391586Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 11:5236Punt7–7
CLEQ2 10:13280Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 9:261060Field goal10–14
CLEQ2 3:32615Punt10–14
TENQ2 1:461049Field goal13–14
CLEQ2 0:0500End of half13–14
CLEQ3 15:0037Punt13–14
TENQ3 13:2735Punt13–14
TENQ3 11:54421Touchdown20–14
CLEQ3 9:58610Punt20–14
TENQ3 7:11845Missed field goal20–14
CLEQ3 2:3734Opp touchdown26–14
TENQ3 1:3700Opp touchdown26–14
CLEQ3 1:37725Turnover26–14
TENQ4 13:4825Turnover26–14
CLEQ4 13:0349Turnover on downs26–14
TENQ4 11:24518Punt26–14
CLEQ4 8:5436Punt26–14
TENQ4 7:39846Touchdown33–14
CLEQ4 3:291661Touchdown33–21
TENQ4 0:1500End of half33–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair18/3617900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George261134.32
Steve McNair7456.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jackie Harris35440
Kevin Dyson410420
Derrick Mason36280
Frank Wycheck35270
Eddie George35210
Joey Kent22170
Isaac Byrd0100
Chris Sanders0100
Rodney Thomas0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch19/3526220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar15352.30
Tim Couch5295.81
Terry Kirby4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson612901
Terry Kirby46881
Darrin Chiaverini49510
Mark Campbell22250
Irv Smith1230
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar1110
Zola Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.52