Closing spread
SD -7.5
Total
36
Model margin
+4.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. SD are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 18/29 | 184 | 1 | 2 |
| Kevin Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrin Chiaverini | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 10 | 41 | 1 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.