Closing spread
LAC -13.5
Total
45
Model margin
+7.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.146EPA / play+0.085
- 38.4%Success rate44.9%
- -0.169EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- -5.42CPOE+0.86
- 33.6%Third-down rate40.7%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.07Points / drive1.87
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. LAC are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 15/32 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 31/43 | 344 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 10 | 14 | 105 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+7.01