Closing spread
SD -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
-4.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 17/25 | 164 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 2/3 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.24
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.