Closing spread
SD -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. SD are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 32/41 | 356 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 10 | 85 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 6 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 6 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.