2015 · Week 4

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

27·30

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SD -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

SD perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 11–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. SD are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LAC @ CLE27–10CHARGERS
2022 · W5LAC @ CLE30–28CHARGERS
2021 · W5CLE @ LAC42–47CHARGERS
2018 · W6LAC @ CLE38–14CHARGERS
2017 · W13CLE @ LAC10–19CHARGERS
2016 · W16SD @ CLE17–20CLE
2012 · W8SD @ CLE6–7CLE
2009 · W13SD @ CLE30–23CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–SD
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LACQ1 14:1230Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:463-6Turnover0–0
LACQ1 12:173-9Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:361163Field goal3–0
LACQ1 4:12975Touchdown3–7
CLEQ1 0:48480Touchdown10–7
LACQ2 14:10856Field goal10–10
CLEQ2 10:37841Punt10–10
LACQ2 5:5439Punt10–10
CLEQ2 4:3733Punt10–10
LACQ2 3:351050Field goal10–13
CLEQ2 1:36960Field goal13–13
LACQ2 0:0300End of half13–13
LACQ3 15:00735Punt13–13
CLEQ3 11:19873Field goal16–13
LACQ3 5:54381Touchdown16–20
CLEQ3 4:2332Punt16–20
LACQ3 3:26615Punt16–20
CLEQ4 15:00840Field goal19–20
LACQ4 9:57574Touchdown19–27
CLEQ4 7:261067Touchdown27–27
LACQ4 2:09752Field goal27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown32/4135620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell12635.30
Duke Johnson8313.90
Shaun Draughn166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson910851
Travis Benjamin610790
Gary Barnidge66751
Isaiah Crowell33620
Andrew Hawkins23270
Taylor Gabriel45220
Brian Hartline1170
Dwayne Bowe0100
Shaun Draughn11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.34

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.