Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
47
Model margin
+0.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.009
- 47.0%Success rate42.8%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.091
- 12.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- +3.54CPOE-0.95
- 39.7%Third-down rate35.9%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.31Points / drive1.75
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 11/20 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 18 | 132 | 7.3 | 3 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 60 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 4 | 118 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/46 | 238 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 36 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damion Ratley | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 7 | 12 | 55 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 10 | 11 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22