2018 · Week 6

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

38·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

47

Model margin

+0.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.126EPA / play-0.009
  • 47.0%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.037
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.091
  • 12.5%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +3.54CPOE-0.95
  • 39.7%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.75
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 11–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LAC @ CLE27–10CHARGERS
2022 · W5LAC @ CLE30–28CHARGERS
2021 · W5CLE @ LAC42–47CHARGERS
2017 · W13CLE @ LAC10–19CHARGERS
2016 · W16SD @ CLE17–20CLE
2015 · W4CLE @ SD27–30CHARGERS
2012 · W8SD @ CLE6–7CLE
2009 · W13SD @ CLE30–23CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0047Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:46557Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 10:14754Punt7–0
LACQ1 7:0434Punt7–0
CLEQ1 6:10109Punt7–0
LACQ1 0:5435Punt7–0
CLEQ2 15:00618Field goal7–3
LACQ2 12:47525Punt7–3
CLEQ2 9:473-1Punt7–3
LACQ2 7:46289Touchdown14–3
CLEQ2 6:341066Turnover on downs14–3
LACQ2 2:13677Touchdown21–3
CLEQ2 0:51759Field goal21–6
LACQ3 15:00413Punt21–6
CLEQ3 12:0510Turnover27–6
LACQ3 11:54110Touchdown28–6
CLEQ3 11:4933Punt28–6
LACQ3 10:221396Touchdown35–6
CLEQ3 3:12615Punt35–6
LACQ3 1:1237Punt35–6
CLEQ4 14:16742Touchdown35–14
LACQ4 12:26855Turnover35–14
CLEQ4 7:24213Turnover35–14
LACQ4 6:5249Field goal38–14
CLEQ4 4:15732Turnover on downs38–14
LACQ4 1:5814End of half38–14

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers11/2020721
Geno Smith1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon181327.33
Austin Ekeler7608.60
Keenan Allen44110.30
Mike Williams11010.00
Justin Jackson341.30
Tyrell Williams111.00
Geno Smith2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyrell Williams341182
Keenan Allen46620
Melvin Gordon24180
Justin Jackson1180
Antonio Gates1250
Mike Williams1440

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/4623812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duke Johnson23618.00
Carlos Hyde14342.40
Nick Chubb3258.30
Baker Mayfield284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damion Ratley68820
Duke Johnson45730
David Njoku712551
Jarvis Landry210110
Antonio Callaway2790
Orson Charles1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.22