Closing spread
LAC -2
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.179
- 42.3%Success rate37.1%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.196
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.140
- 9.2%Explosive rate5.8%
- +1.69CPOE-4.22
- 40.1%Third-down rate28.8%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.25Points / drive1.09
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 18/27 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 85 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 5 | 118 | 1 |
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Simi Fehoko | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 26/46 | 235 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Tillman | 6 | 11 | 75 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.79