2024 · Week 9

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

27·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

LAC -2

Total

42.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.179
  • 42.3%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback-0.196
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.140
  • 9.2%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +1.69CPOE-4.22
  • 40.1%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.09
  • 0.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 11–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5LAC @ CLE30–28CHARGERS
2021 · W5CLE @ LAC42–47CHARGERS
2018 · W6LAC @ CLE38–14CHARGERS
2017 · W13CLE @ LAC10–19CHARGERS
2016 · W16SD @ CLE17–20CLE
2015 · W4CLE @ SD27–30CHARGERS
2012 · W8SD @ CLE6–7CLE
2009 · W13SD @ CLE30–23CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–CLE
LACQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:45517Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:33735Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 6:49410Punt7–0
LACQ1 5:1638Punt7–0
CLEQ1 3:113-5Punt7–0
LACQ1 1:453-16Punt7–0
CLEQ2 14:491029Field goal7–3
LACQ2 9:30370Touchdown13–3
CLEQ2 8:0140Punt13–3
LACQ2 6:17560Touchdown20–3
CLEQ2 3:3036Punt20–3
LACQ2 1:56981End of half20–3
CLEQ3 15:001571Turnover20–3
LACQ3 6:443-1Punt20–3
CLEQ3 5:5230Punt20–3
LACQ3 5:2836Punt20–3
CLEQ3 3:54419Turnover20–3
LACQ3 2:1634Punt20–3
CLEQ3 1:10513Turnover on downs20–3
LACQ4 14:16424Missed field goal20–3
CLEQ4 11:37317Turnover20–3
LACQ4 10:4449Punt20–3
CLEQ4 9:14845Missed field goal20–3
LACQ4 6:30446Touchdown27–3
CLEQ4 4:161270Touchdown27–10
LACQ4 0:4400End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert18/2728220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins14856.12
Kimani Vidal571.40
Justin Herbert320.70
Quentin Johnston122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston451181
Ladd McConkey57640
Josh Palmer24631
J.K. Dobbins22200
Will Dissly2390
Hayden Hurst1160
Eric Tomlinson1120
Jalen Reagor1200
Simi Fehoko0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston26/4623513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb15392.60
Jameis Winston5275.40
Pierre Strong284.00
Jerome Ford252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cedric Tillman611751
Jerry Jeudy711730
Jordan Akins34320
David Njoku57290
Elijah Moore39280
Jerome Ford1320
Nick Chubb11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.79