2021 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

42·47

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapChargers
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.088
  • 43.7%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.167
  • +0.015EPA / rush-0.075
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -2.26CPOE-0.71
  • 39.1%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.55
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 11–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. LAC are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LAC @ CLE27–10CHARGERS
2022 · W5LAC @ CLE30–28CHARGERS
2018 · W6LAC @ CLE38–14CHARGERS
2017 · W13CLE @ LAC10–19CHARGERS
2016 · W16SD @ CLE17–20CLE
2015 · W4CLE @ SD27–30CHARGERS
2012 · W8SD @ CLE6–7CLE
2009 · W13SD @ CLE30–23CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–LAC
LACQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CLEQ1 14:11980Field goal3–0
LACQ1 7:391180Touchdown3–7
CLEQ1 2:44963Touchdown10–7
LACQ2 12:46482Touchdown10–13
CLEQ2 11:43658Turnover on downs10–13
LACQ2 8:123-5Punt10–13
CLEQ2 6:541153Touchdown17–13
LACQ2 0:5417Turnover17–13
CLEQ2 0:3839Field goal20–13
CLEQ3 15:00575Touchdown27–13
LACQ3 12:181570Touchdown27–21
CLEQ3 6:25630Punt27–21
LACQ3 2:17615Punt27–21
CLEQ4 14:5040Punt27–21
LACQ4 12:51461Touchdown27–28
CLEQ4 11:22278Touchdown35–28
LACQ4 10:401347Touchdown35–35
CLEQ4 7:24560Touchdown42–35
LACQ4 4:45785Touchdown42–41
CLEQ4 3:1534Punt42–41
LACQ4 2:02548Touchdown42–47
CLEQ4 1:31721Turnover on downs42–47
LACQ4 0:0500End of half42–47

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield23/3230520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb211617.71
Kareem Hunt12615.12
Baker Mayfield284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku771491
Donovan Peoples-Jones56700
Rashard Higgins35291
Kareem Hunt56280
Odell Beckham Jr.23200
Nick Chubb1190
Anthony Schwartz0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert26/4339840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler17663.92
Justin Herbert4297.31
Joshua Kelley2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams8161652
Keenan Allen69750
Austin Ekeler55531
Jalen Guyton23350
Jared Cook13290
Donald Parham22291
Josh Palmer23120
Stephen Anderson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.44