Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.088
- 43.7%Success rate47.4%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.167
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.075
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- -2.26CPOE-0.71
- 39.1%Third-down rate45.7%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 1.81Points / drive2.55
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. LAC are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 23/32 | 305 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 21 | 161 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 7 | 7 | 149 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 26/43 | 398 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 8 | 16 | 165 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.44