2012 · Week 8

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

6·7

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

SD -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 11–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LAC @ CLE27–10CHARGERS
2022 · W5LAC @ CLE30–28CHARGERS
2021 · W5CLE @ LAC42–47CHARGERS
2018 · W6LAC @ CLE38–14CHARGERS
2017 · W13CLE @ LAC10–19CHARGERS
2016 · W16SD @ CLE17–20CLE
2015 · W4CLE @ SD27–30CHARGERS
2009 · W13SD @ CLE30–23CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–CLE
LACQ1 15:001051Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 8:521265Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 4:1737Punt0–7
CLEQ1 2:3739Punt0–7
LACQ1 0:5014Turnover0–7
CLEQ1 0:4135Punt0–7
LACQ2 14:163-6Punt0–7
CLEQ2 12:4548Punt0–7
LACQ2 10:38828Punt0–7
CLEQ2 6:511057Punt0–7
LACQ2 1:48855Field goal3–7
CLEQ3 15:00614Punt3–7
LACQ3 12:3137Punt3–7
CLEQ3 10:4532Punt3–7
LACQ3 9:4031Punt3–7
CLEQ3 8:4437Punt3–7
LACQ3 7:09830Field goal6–7
CLEQ3 2:33837Punt6–7
LACQ4 14:521244Punt6–7
CLEQ4 7:37948Punt6–7
LACQ4 2:36944Turnover on downs6–7
CLEQ4 1:2000End of half6–7

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden11/2712900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson241225.11
Chris Ogbonnaya144.00
Brandon Weeden441.00
Montario Hardesty331.00
Josh Cribbs100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon35460
Greg Little25280
Benjamin Watson14140
Jordan Cameron14120
Trent Richardson11120
Chris Ogbonnaya1390
Josh Cribbs1170
Alex Smith1310
Josh Cooper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+0.17

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.