Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 11/27 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 24 | 122 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+0.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.