2022 · Week 5

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

30·28

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

LAC -1

Total

47

Model margin

+0.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.013
  • 44.1%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.057EPA / rush+0.002
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.13CPOE+1.05
  • 43.5%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.91
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 11–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LAC @ CLE27–10CHARGERS
2021 · W5CLE @ LAC42–47CHARGERS
2018 · W6LAC @ CLE38–14CHARGERS
2017 · W13CLE @ LAC10–19CHARGERS
2016 · W16SD @ CLE17–20CLE
2015 · W4CLE @ SD27–30CHARGERS
2012 · W8SD @ CLE6–7CLE
2009 · W13SD @ CLE30–23CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00575Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 12:011040Turnover on downs0–7
CLEQ1 8:52972Touchdown0–14
LACQ1 4:01471Field goal3–14
CLEQ1 2:2634Punt3–14
LACQ1 0:41560Touchdown10–14
CLEQ2 13:3936Punt10–14
LACQ2 11:511289Touchdown17–14
CLEQ2 5:51773Touchdown17–21
LACQ2 2:5539Punt17–21
CLEQ2 1:48850Missed field goal17–21
LACQ2 0:1100End of half17–21
LACQ3 15:001175Touchdown24–21
CLEQ3 10:2145Turnover on downs24–21
LACQ3 8:51628Field goal27–21
CLEQ3 5:471175Touchdown27–28
LACQ3 0:551266Field goal30–28
CLEQ4 9:291273Turnover30–28
LACQ4 2:44629Turnover on downs30–28
CLEQ4 1:10510Missed field goal30–28
LACQ4 0:1100End of half30–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3422810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler1617310.81
Joshua Kelley10494.91
Justin Herbert5132.60
Zander Horvath231.50
Sony Michel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams10131340
Joshua Kelley22330
Austin Ekeler44261
Josh Palmer36240
DeAndre Carter2290
Gerald Everett1320
Donald Parham0100
Tre' McKitty0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/3423011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb171347.92
Kareem Hunt11474.31
Jacoby Brissett33210.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku66880
Amari Cooper712761
Donovan Peoples-Jones47500
Kareem Hunt33100
David Bell1160
Nick Chubb0100
Harrison Bryant0100
Anthony Schwartz0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.38