Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
47
Model margin
+0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.013
- 44.1%Success rate44.1%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.057EPA / rush+0.002
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.13CPOE+1.05
- 43.5%Third-down rate39.0%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 1.97Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/34 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 16 | 173 | 10.8 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 10 | 13 | 134 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/34 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 134 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 6 | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 12 | 76 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.38