Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+0.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.102
- 40.8%Success rate38.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.228
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- 36.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
- 1.48Points / drive1.03
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/24 | 155 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Mond Parker | 19 | 113 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Basil Mitchell | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 7 | 97 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 20/36 | 223 | 0 | 1 |
| Cade McNown | 1/3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Shane Matthews | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Curtis Conway | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 7 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+0.66