1999 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

35·19

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+0.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.102
  • 40.8%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.228
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 36.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.03
  • 3.3%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:27624Turnover0–0
GBQ1 10:52521Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:1435Punt0–0
GBQ1 6:4423Opp touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 5:5900Opp touchdown0–7
GBQ1 5:5923Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 5:0149Turnover on downs0–7
GBQ1 3:48411Punt0–7
CHIQ1 1:26969Field goal0–10
GBQ2 11:46976Touchdown7–10
CHIQ2 7:0732Punt7–10
GBQ2 5:52719Touchdown14–10
CHIQ2 3:43718Opp touchdown21–10
GBQ2 1:0900Opp touchdown21–10
CHIQ2 1:09461Field goal21–13
GBQ2 0:0100End of half21–13
GBQ3 15:0037Punt21–13
CHIQ3 12:48921Missed field goal21–13
GBQ3 8:39732Punt21–13
CHIQ3 4:2835Punt21–13
CHIQ3 2:55518Touchdown21–19
GBQ3 0:191188Touchdown28–19
CHIQ4 9:0245Punt28–19
GBQ4 6:45760Touchdown35–19
CHIQ4 3:08960Turnover on downs35–19
GBQ4 1:1732Punt35–19
CHIQ4 0:0310End of half35–19

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre17/2415512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Mond Parker191135.92
Basil Mitchell11474.30
Brett Favre11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman67970
Bill Schroeder45251
Lamont Hall1190
De'Mond Parker2260
Tyrone Davis1250
Corey Bradford0100
Basil Mitchell1400

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews20/3622301
Cade McNown1/3300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Enis19804.21
Shane Matthews372.30
Cade McNown166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Engram25600
Curtis Conway58570
Curtis Enis711480
Glyn Milburn23250
Marcus Robinson37250
Marty Booker1140
Edgar Bennett0100
Alonzo Mayes0100
Ryan Wetnight0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+0.66