Closing spread
MIA -2
Total
43
Model margin
+1.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.116
- 41.4%Success rate37.3%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.186
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 39.4%Third-down rate34.2%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.88Points / drive1.17
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/29 | 260 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 130 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 10 | 125 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 5 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| E.G. Green | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 24/38 | 313 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 21 | 62 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 6 | 8 | 109 | 1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 6 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| Yatil Green | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.47