1999 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

37·34

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -2

Total

43

Model margin

+1.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.116
  • 41.4%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.186
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 39.4%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.17
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.102

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:07842Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 8:101055Field goal3–3
INDQ1 3:02574Touchdown10–3
MIAQ1 0:4216Opp touchdown17–3
INDQ1 0:1900Opp touchdown17–3
MIAQ1 0:19421Turnover17–3
INDQ2 13:17614Punt17–3
MIAQ2 9:541056Touchdown17–10
INDQ2 5:16978Touchdown24–10
MIAQ2 0:5747Punt24–10
INDQ2 0:0900End of half24–10
INDQ3 15:002-2Opp touchdown24–17
MIAQ3 14:1100Opp touchdown24–17
INDQ3 14:11884Touchdown31–17
MIAQ3 9:28419Punt31–17
INDQ3 7:40510Punt31–17
MIAQ3 4:26257Touchdown31–24
INDQ3 3:53443Turnover31–24
MIAQ3 1:431155Touchdown31–31
INDQ4 13:073-1Punt31–31
MIAQ4 11:503-3Turnover31–31
INDQ4 10:193-10Punt31–31
MIAQ4 8:49515Punt31–31
INDQ4 6:2936Field goal34–31
MIAQ4 4:24966Field goal34–34
INDQ4 0:36333Field goal37–34

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning23/2926012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James231305.72
Peyton Manning2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison8101250
Ken Dilger55800
Terrence Wilkins24251
Marcus Pollard33200
E.G. Green2490
Edgerrin James3310

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Marino24/3831331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. Johnson21623.00
Stanley Pritchett177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Martin681091
Oronde Gadsden671031
Yatil Green58640
J.J. Johnson35260
Troy Drayton1490
Stanley Pritchett3321

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.47