1999 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Elvis Grbac

16·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Mile High Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.035
  • 38.7%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 39.1%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.38
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.063

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
KCQ1 15:00625Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:01550Field goal0–3
KCQ1 8:2838Punt0–3
DENQ1 6:1935Punt0–3
KCQ1 5:201062Punt0–3
DENQ1 0:00310Punt0–3
KCQ2 13:20743Touchdown7–3
DENQ2 10:153-6Punt7–3
KCQ2 8:3533Punt7–3
DENQ2 7:393-8Punt7–3
KCQ2 5:4138Punt7–3
DENQ2 4:21541Touchdown7–10
KCQ2 2:11961Field goal10–10
DENQ2 0:36341End of half10–10
DENQ3 15:0036Punt10–10
KCQ3 13:42313Punt10–10
DENQ3 12:22546Turnover10–10
KCQ3 9:401270Turnover10–10
DENQ3 3:25529Punt10–10
KCQ3 0:56834Punt10–10
DENQ4 12:16734Punt10–10
KCQ4 9:00312Punt10–10
DENQ4 6:45414Opp touchdown16–10
KCQ4 4:5300Opp touchdown16–10
DENQ4 4:5333Punt16–10
KCQ4 3:5131Punt16–10
DENQ4 3:20626Turnover on downs16–10
KCQ4 2:12214End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac20/3418311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Morris6142.30
Mike Cloud4133.30
Joe Horn166.00
Elvis Grbac2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn24360
Tony Gonzalez57351
Andre Rison34300
Derrick Alexander35290
Kevin Lockett35250
Bam Morris22120

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese20/3622701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Olandis Gary14614.41
Howard Griffith2199.50
Derek Loville122.00
Brian Griese111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith8151060
Ed McCaffrey37660
Howard Griffith44260
Olandis Gary22150
Derek Loville2390
Byron Chamberlain0100
Billy Miller0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+2.08