Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.035
- 38.7%Success rate40.6%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.01Points / drive1.38
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.063
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 20/34 | 183 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Andre Rison | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 20/36 | 227 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 15 | 106 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.08