1999 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.149
- 44.6%Success rate35.1%
- +0.128EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- 44.4%Third-down rate35.3%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.72Points / drive1.03
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. TB are 10-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 26/45 | 271 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 6 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 6 | 14 | 42 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 11/19 | 93 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 5 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Bert Emanuel | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54