1999 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.149
- 44.6%Success rate35.1%
- +0.128EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- 44.4%Third-down rate35.3%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.72Points / drive1.03
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. TB are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 37 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 13:31 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 13:31 | 3 | 32 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 11:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 9:54 | 13 | 50 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 3:49 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 14:12 | 10 | 33 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 9:30 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 8:08 | 5 | 22 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| TB | Q2 5:52 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 3:28 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:56 | 3 | 10 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| TB | Q2 0:27 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 1 | Punt | 14–10 |
| MIN | Q3 12:25 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 14–10 |
| TB | Q3 10:26 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| MIN | Q3 7:14 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 14–17 |
| TB | Q3 4:36 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 14–17 |
| TB | Q3 0:15 | 8 | 13 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| MIN | Q4 11:46 | 11 | 57 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| TB | Q4 5:50 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 17–24 |
| MIN | Q4 3:24 | 13 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 17–24 |
| TB | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 26/45 | 271 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 6 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 6 | 14 | 42 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 11/19 | 93 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 5 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Bert Emanuel | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54