1999 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Billy Joe Hobert

12·35

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -4

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.094
  • 36.9%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.220
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 34.1%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.22
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0023Turnover0–0
NOQ1 13:5930Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:0030Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:56611Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 9:31519Punt3–0
NOQ1 6:145-10Punt3–0
ATLQ1 4:22536Touchdown3–7
NOQ1 1:52420Punt3–7
ATLQ1 0:071066Touchdown3–14
NOQ2 9:531041Field goal6–14
ATLQ2 4:55280Touchdown6–21
NOQ2 3:49923Turnover on downs6–21
ATLQ2 0:50336Turnover6–21
NOQ2 0:22345End of half6–21
NOQ3 15:00322Turnover6–21
ATLQ3 14:141290Touchdown6–28
NOQ3 6:2234Punt6–28
ATLQ3 5:193-1Turnover6–28
NOQ3 4:2233Opp touchdown6–35
ATLQ3 2:4300Opp touchdown6–35
NOQ3 2:431751Touchdown12–35
ATLQ4 10:24834Punt12–35
NOQ4 5:311130Punt12–35
ATLQ4 1:032-2End of half12–35

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Danny Wuerffel15/3012702
Billy Joe Hobert2/71200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wilmont Perry16935.80
Danny Wuerffel12929.01
Dino Philyaw22010.00
Troy Davis771.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Hastings58460
Eddie Kennison49230
Lamar Smith11210
Troy Davis46200
Lawrence Dawsey12150
Keith Poole1380
Wilmont Perry1460
Cameron Cleeland0400

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler15/2523323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ken Oxendine19854.50
Chris Chandler111.01
Tony Graziani2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Dwight23801
Terance Mathis35461
Brian Kozlowski11260
Chris Calloway11220
Winslow Oliver22210
Ken Oxendine22150
Bryan Still24140
Reggie Kelly2390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.59