Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.094
- 36.9%Success rate38.5%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.220
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- 34.1%Third-down rate35.1%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.12Points / drive1.22
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Wuerffel | 15/30 | 127 | 0 | 2 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 2/7 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmont Perry | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 |
| Dino Philyaw | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hastings | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Troy Davis | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Lawrence Dawsey | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Wilmont Perry | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 15/25 | 233 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tony Graziani | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 3 | 80 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Winslow Oliver | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Bryan Still | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59