Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
37
Model margin
+2.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play-0.176
- 33.4%Success rate35.9%
- -0.199EPA / dropback-0.148
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.226
- 6.4%Explosive rate5.9%
- 31.2%Third-down rate33.3%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 0.90Points / drive0.87
- 3.6%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/31 | 157 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 25 | 72 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 9 | 67 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Eric Bieniemy | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameane Douglas | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/37 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Mario Bates | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 5 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| David Boston | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Mac Cody | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dennis McKinley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.30