1999 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

17·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

ARI -7

Total

37

Model margin

+2.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • -0.192EPA / play-0.176
  • 33.4%Success rate35.9%
  • -0.199EPA / dropback-0.148
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.226
  • 6.4%Explosive rate5.9%
  • 31.2%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 0.90Points / drive0.87
  • 3.6%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00921Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:181151Opp touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 5:2400Opp touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 5:24624Punt0–7
ARIQ1 1:55616Punt0–7
PHIQ2 14:0039Punt0–7
ARIQ2 12:1349Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ2 10:30436Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 7:56612Punt7–7
PHIQ2 6:011190Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 0:4326End of half14–7
PHIQ3 15:003-6Punt14–7
ARIQ3 12:4820Turnover14–7
PHIQ3 12:342-4Turnover14–7
ARIQ3 11:50310Turnover14–7
PHIQ3 10:26828Field goal17–7
ARIQ3 5:3135Punt17–7
PHIQ3 3:441449Punt17–7
ARIQ4 10:501680Touchdown17–14
PHIQ4 4:313-1Punt17–14
ARIQ4 2:10869Touchdown17–21
PHIQ4 0:57618Turnover on downs17–21
ARIQ4 0:0900End of half17–21

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/3115721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley25722.90
Donovan McNabb9677.40
Eric Bieniemy252.50
Cecil Martin122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dameane Douglas34471
Duce Staley55420
Na Brown48290
Torrance Small36240
Chad Lewis11111
Luther Broughton1250
Cecil Martin1150
Dietrich Jells0200
Jed Weaver0100
Donovan McNabb11-60

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer20/3717911
Frank Sanders0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Murrell8243.00
Jake Plummer7223.11
Mario Bates482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders69720
Adrian Murrell510390
David Boston35281
Mac Cody23190
Johnny McWilliams22160
Terry Hardy1240
Mario Bates1110
Dennis McKinley0100
Rob Moore0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.68
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.30