2013 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

21·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

+4.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.100
  • 41.6%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.5%Explosive rate13.5%
  • +3.74CPOE+2.43
  • 35.3%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.91
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI
2011 · W10ARI @ PHI21–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PHI
ARIQ1 15:003-1Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 13:26425Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 12:30626Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 9:1431Punt0–7
ARIQ1 7:45636Punt0–7
PHIQ1 4:31430Punt0–7
ARIQ1 2:42634Punt0–7
PHIQ2 14:44623Punt0–7
ARIQ2 12:03857Touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 7:50868Field goal7–10
ARIQ2 3:59511Punt7–10
PHIQ2 2:221050Touchdown7–17
ARIQ2 0:1500End of half7–17
PHIQ3 15:001382Touchdown7–24
ARIQ3 10:161285Touchdown14–24
PHIQ3 5:143-15Punt14–24
ARIQ3 3:45515Turnover14–24
PHIQ3 0:5135Punt14–24
ARIQ4 14:5230Punt14–24
PHIQ4 13:06619Punt14–24
ARIQ4 10:5835Punt14–24
PHIQ4 10:00511Punt14–24
ARIQ4 7:20978Touchdown21–24
PHIQ4 4:4566Punt21–24
ARIQ4 2:0845Turnover on downs21–24
PHIQ4 1:5136End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer24/4130232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall18764.20
Stepfan Taylor3155.00
Carson Palmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd510991
Larry Fitzgerald58721
Stepfan Taylor23450
Andre Roberts48290
Jim Dray33261
Rob Housler36210
Jaron Brown1160
Brittan Golden1240

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles21/3423730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy19794.20
Nick Foles9222.40
Bryce Brown540.80
Brad Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz56682
Riley Cooper36480
DeSean Jackson36360
LeSean McCoy56360
Brent Celek46291
Jason Avant14200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.58