Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+4.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.100
- 41.6%Success rate46.4%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.5%Explosive rate13.5%
- +3.74CPOE+2.43
- 35.3%Third-down rate39.3%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
- 1.71Points / drive1.91
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/41 | 302 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 10 | 99 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 21/34 | 237 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 6 | 68 | 2 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.58