2023 · Week 17

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

35·31

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -12

Total

48

Model margin

+2.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.061
  • 41.0%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.007
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.77CPOE+3.86
  • 39.6%Third-down rate47.5%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.30
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI
2011 · W10ARI @ PHI21–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:551364Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 5:091069Touchdown3–7
ARIQ1 0:36843Opp touchdown3–14
ARIQ2 11:441763Field goal6–14
PHIQ2 1:50975Touchdown6–21
ARIQ2 0:1629End of half6–21
ARIQ3 15:001075Touchdown13–21
PHIQ3 8:4235Punt13–21
ARIQ3 7:04977Touchdown21–21
PHIQ3 2:011370Touchdown21–28
ARIQ4 9:55948Touchdown28–28
PHIQ4 5:26624Field goal28–31
ARIQ4 2:33770Touchdown35–31
PHIQ4 0:32524Turnover35–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray25/3123231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner261284.91
Michael Carter7618.70
Kyler Murray5244.80
Rondale Moore284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dortch77820
Trey McBride67480
Michael Wilson46351
Rondale Moore34260
Elijah Higgins22210
Emari Demercado1390
Michael Carter1161
James Conner1151

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/2316731
Kenny Gainwell1/11700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift13614.70
Jalen Hurts8253.10
Kenny Gainwell252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown45530
Dallas Goedert56471
Julio Jones22342
DeVonta Smith35300
Kenny Gainwell44150
D'Andre Swift1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.81