Closing spread
PHI -12
Total
48
Model margin
+2.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.061
- 41.0%Success rate46.3%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.007
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.77CPOE+3.86
- 39.6%Third-down rate47.5%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.88Points / drive2.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 25/31 | 232 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 26 | 128 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 7 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 6 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/23 | 167 | 3 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 2 | 34 | 2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.81