Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
45
Model margin
+3.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.051
- 38.8%Success rate43.3%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.093
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- -4.25CPOE+0.38
- 35.7%Third-down rate42.0%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.20Points / drive2.12
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 28/44 | 291 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 9 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 21/30 | 304 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 5 | 93 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 12 | 61 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06