2017 · Week 5

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

7·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

45

Model margin

+3.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.051
  • 38.8%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.093
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -4.25CPOE+0.38
  • 35.7%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.12
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI
2011 · W10ARI @ PHI21–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PHI
ARIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:451049Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 8:19514Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:22315Touchdown0–14
ARIQ1 3:5232Punt0–14
PHIQ1 2:16364Touchdown0–21
ARIQ1 0:431060Touchdown7–21
PHIQ2 11:42629Punt7–21
ARIQ2 9:0449Punt7–21
PHIQ2 6:5534Punt7–21
ARIQ2 4:4837Punt7–21
PHIQ2 3:19847Turnover7–21
ARIQ2 0:40447Missed field goal7–21
PHIQ3 15:001057Field goal7–24
ARIQ3 9:1834Punt7–24
PHIQ3 7:17473Touchdown7–31
ARIQ3 6:16416Punt7–31
PHIQ3 4:24436Punt7–31
ARIQ3 1:321473Turnover on downs7–31
PHIQ4 11:141447Field goal7–34
ARIQ4 2:00774Turnover7–34
PHIQ4 1:0500End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer28/4429110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson9212.30
J.J. Nelson11414.00
Kerwynn Williams3-2-0.70
Andre Ellington1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.J. Nelson46800
Andre Ellington910650
Larry Fitzgerald610510
Jaron Brown36390
John Brown27261
Jermaine Gresham22160
Chris Johnson1180
Ricky Seals-Jones0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz21/3030441

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount14745.30
Kenjon Barner5234.60
Corey Clement7172.40
Carson Wentz6111.80
Torrey Smith1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor45931
Torrey Smith34701
Zach Ertz612611
Alshon Jeffery34310
Corey Clement11220
Trey Burton22161
Marcus Johnson1160
Brent Celek1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.06