Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.044
- 47.7%Success rate42.7%
- +0.260EPA / dropback-0.008
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- +4.51CPOE-0.86
- 47.4%Third-down rate39.1%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.34Points / drive1.56
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/32 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 29 | 187 | 6.4 | 3 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| John Brown | 3 | 9 | 38 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 28/41 | 361 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 8 | 11 | 159 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 13 | 78 | 1 |
| Josh Huff | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.32