2015 · Week 15

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

40·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

ARI -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.044
  • 47.7%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.260EPA / dropback-0.008
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +4.51CPOE-0.86
  • 47.4%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.56
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI
2011 · W10ARI @ PHI21–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PHI
ARIQ1 15:00878Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 10:441271Field goal7–3
ARIQ1 6:001273Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 14:0839Punt10–3
ARIQ2 12:17410Punt10–3
PHIQ2 10:21453Touchdown10–10
ARIQ2 8:26627Punt10–10
PHIQ2 6:1635Punt10–10
ARIQ2 5:23367Touchdown17–10
PHIQ2 4:001048Turnover on downs17–10
ARIQ2 0:45743End of half17–10
PHIQ3 15:00421Punt17–10
ARIQ3 14:00887Touchdown23–10
PHIQ3 9:481149Turnover23–10
ARIQ3 5:4931Punt23–10
PHIQ3 4:50428Turnover23–10
ARIQ3 3:24638Touchdown30–10
PHIQ3 0:40319Opp touchdown37–10
PHIQ4 14:50178Touchdown37–17
ARIQ4 14:32611Punt37–17
PHIQ4 10:16735Turnover on downs37–17
ARIQ4 8:17949Field goal40–17
PHIQ4 2:5528Turnover40–17
ARIQ4 2:33211End of half40–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3227410
Drew Stanton0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson291876.43
Kerwynn Williams6345.70
Stepfan Taylor2115.50
Drew Stanton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd58700
Darren Fells33540
Larry Fitzgerald35430
David Johnson44420
John Brown39381
Jaron Brown11150
Kerwynn Williams11120
J.J. Nelson0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford28/4136122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews11585.30
Darren Sproles691.50
Sam Bradford144.00
DeMarco Murray231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews8111591
Zach Ertz813781
Josh Huff44520
Brent Celek22310
Riley Cooper24220
Darren Sproles34160
Ryan Mathews1230
Nelson Agholor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.32