2020 · Week 15

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

26·33

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.051
  • 41.8%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.009
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -4.93CPOE+2.07
  • 36.0%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.19
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI
2011 · W10ARI @ PHI21–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001062Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 10:2232Safety0–2
ARIQ1 9:343-1Punt0–2
PHIQ1 8:4036Punt0–2
ARIQ1 6:43351Touchdown0–9
PHIQ1 5:46522Punt0–9
ARIQ1 2:2626Touchdown0–16
PHIQ1 2:18774Touchdown7–16
ARIQ2 14:01453Field goal7–19
PHIQ2 11:37530Punt7–19
ARIQ2 9:3839Turnover7–19
PHIQ2 8:35521Touchdown14–19
ARIQ2 6:20871Touchdown14–26
PHIQ2 2:13866Touchdown20–26
ARIQ2 1:19765End of half20–26
PHIQ3 15:00644Punt20–26
ARIQ3 12:56637Punt20–26
PHIQ3 10:1030Punt20–26
ARIQ3 7:47536Turnover20–26
PHIQ3 5:361150Touchdown26–26
ARIQ3 0:55842Turnover on downs26–26
PHIQ4 12:1136Punt26–26
ARIQ4 10:31786Touchdown26–33
PHIQ4 7:171354Turnover on downs26–33
ARIQ4 1:5039Punt26–33
PHIQ4 1:281047End of half26–33

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts24/4433830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders17643.80
Jalen Hurts11635.71
Jalen Reagor1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz27690
Alshon Jeffery23630
Jalen Reagor58490
Quez Watkins34401
Dallas Goedert48390
Travis Fulgham22300
Miles Sanders12260
Greg Ward45152
Boston Scott1170

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray27/3640631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds11474.30
Kyler Murray8293.61
Kenyan Drake10262.60
DeAndre Hopkins111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins9111691
Dan Arnold35540
Maxx Williams11420
KeeSean Johnson23380
Larry Fitzgerald34351
Christian Kirk34330
Chase Edmonds35191
Kenyan Drake22140
Darrell Daniels1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

40.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.98
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.07