Closing spread
ARI -6.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.051
- 41.8%Success rate46.0%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.009
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- -4.93CPOE+2.07
- 36.0%Third-down rate40.2%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 1.61Points / drive2.19
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 24/44 | 338 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 4 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/36 | 406 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 11 | 169 | 1 |
| Dan Arnold | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.07