Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.081
- 47.9%Success rate40.7%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.079
- +0.072EPA / rush-0.084
- 11.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- +2.05CPOE-1.70
- 46.2%Third-down rate35.4%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 2.43Points / drive1.60
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 26/36 | 239 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 8 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 10 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 28/42 | 250 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 8 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 7 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.17