2022 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

20·17

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-2.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.081
  • 47.9%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback-0.079
  • +0.072EPA / rush-0.084
  • 11.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +2.05CPOE-1.70
  • 46.2%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 2.43Points / drive1.60
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI
2011 · W10ARI @ PHI21–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:151164Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 8:0210Turnover7–0
PHIQ1 7:5638Punt7–0
ARIQ1 6:05936Punt7–0
PHIQ1 2:311697Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 10:1133Punt14–0
PHIQ2 9:203-12Punt14–0
ARIQ2 7:40657Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 5:24523Punt14–7
ARIQ2 3:221591Field goal14–10
PHIQ3 15:001061Field goal17–10
ARIQ3 9:571020Punt17–10
PHIQ3 4:35847Punt17–10
ARIQ3 0:201290Touchdown17–17
PHIQ4 9:431670Field goal20–17
ARIQ4 1:45755Missed field goal20–17
PHIQ4 0:1700End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts26/3623900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts15614.12
Miles Sanders15583.90
Kenny Gainwell3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert89950
DeVonta Smith1011870
A.J. Brown37320
Quez Watkins34190
Miles Sanders2360

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray28/4225011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner9556.10
Kyler Murray44210.50
Eno Benjamin8253.11
Darrel Williams393.00
Rondale Moore2-7-3.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown810781
Rondale Moore78680
Zach Ertz610480
Eno Benjamin34280
A.J. Green35200
James Conner1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.17