Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.259
- 42.7%Success rate35.1%
- -0.006EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.0%
- +0.51CPOE-8.47
- 37.1%Third-down rate25.9%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
- 1.18Points / drive0.79
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 17/37 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damaris Johnson | 5 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mardy Gilyard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 17/24 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Williams | 13 | 83 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 8 | -14 | -1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 9 | 114 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Williams | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.85