2012 · Week 3

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

6·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

6.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.259
  • 42.7%Success rate35.1%
  • -0.006EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.242
  • 8.8%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +0.51CPOE-8.47
  • 37.1%Third-down rate25.9%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
  • 1.18Points / drive0.79
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2011 · W10ARI @ PHI21–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ARI
PHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
ARIQ1 14:05736Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 10:18616Punt0–3
ARIQ1 6:3333Punt0–3
ARIQ1 4:36838Touchdown0–10
PHIQ1 1:04449Turnover0–10
ARIQ2 14:22750Punt0–10
PHIQ2 10:143-3Punt0–10
ARIQ2 9:02455Touchdown0–17
PHIQ2 7:3040Punt0–17
ARIQ2 5:54512Punt0–17
PHIQ2 2:261173Opp touchdown0–24
ARIQ3 15:00538Punt0–24
PHIQ3 11:371277Field goal3–24
ARIQ3 5:073-15Punt3–24
PHIQ3 3:14733Field goal6–24
ARIQ3 0:0239Punt6–24
PHIQ4 13:15839Punt6–24
ARIQ4 10:261252Field goal6–27
PHIQ4 3:52516Turnover on downs6–27
ARIQ4 3:05315Turnover on downs6–27
PHIQ4 0:3314End of half6–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick17/3721700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy13705.40
Bryce Brown4287.00
Mike Vick4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damaris Johnson511840
DeSean Jackson310430
Jason Avant34380
Brent Celek26360
LeSean McCoy3380
Bryce Brown1280
Mardy Gilyard0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb17/2422220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Williams13836.40
Chris Wells8182.30
Kevin Kolb4164.00
LaRod Stephens-Howling8-14-1.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald991141
Andre Roberts36550
Rob Housler22180
Jeff King12150
Ryan Williams12120
Michael Floyd1281
Early Doucet0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.85