Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
49
Model margin
+5.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.024
- 43.7%Success rate39.1%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.165
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.76CPOE-4.59
- 44.2%Third-down rate40.7%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.88Points / drive1.54
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 36/62 | 411 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 12 | 16 | 187 | 2 |
| Riley Cooper | 5 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 11 | 47 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/42 | 329 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 23 | 71 | 3.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 10 | 160 | 1 |
| John Brown | 5 | 10 | 119 | 1 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.59
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.86