2014 · Week 8

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

20·24

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -1

Total

49

Model margin

+5.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.024
  • 43.7%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.165
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.76CPOE-4.59
  • 44.2%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.54
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI
2011 · W10ARI @ PHI21–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ARI
PHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:481122Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:491075Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 4:391380Touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 13:45872Turnover7–7
ARIQ2 10:34631Punt7–7
PHIQ2 8:31555Turnover7–7
ARIQ2 7:14412Punt7–7
PHIQ2 5:50619Punt7–7
ARIQ2 3:41526Punt7–7
PHIQ2 1:481048Punt7–7
ARIQ3 15:00380Touchdown7–14
PHIQ3 14:07930Punt7–14
ARIQ3 10:453-2Punt7–14
PHIQ3 9:09520Field goal10–14
ARIQ3 7:1947Punt10–14
PHIQ3 5:4537Punt10–14
ARIQ3 4:1731Punt16–14
PHIQ3 2:31154Touchdown17–14
ARIQ3 2:22425Turnover17–14
PHIQ3 0:563-4Punt17–14
ARIQ4 14:3938Punt17–14
PHIQ4 13:1134Turnover17–14
ARIQ4 12:20830Field goal17–17
PHIQ4 9:011373Field goal20–17
ARIQ4 1:56380Touchdown20–24
PHIQ4 1:211364End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles36/6241122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy20834.20
Nick Foles2147.00
Chris Polk3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin12161872
Riley Cooper59880
Zach Ertz58480
Jordan Matthews611470
LeSean McCoy35140
Josh Huff14120
Brent Celek2480
Jeff Maehl1160
Chris Polk1110

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/4232920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington23713.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald7101601
John Brown5101191
John Carlson26160
Andre Ellington36140
Robert Hughes22130
Jaron Brown1170
Rob Housler0100
Michael Floyd0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.59
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.86