1999 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

14·41

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.091
  • 40.1%Success rate36.5%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.084
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.100
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate28.4%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.00
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.151

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
TENQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:09523Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:221166Field goal3–0
BALQ1 6:1037Punt3–0
TENQ1 4:2738Punt3–6
BALQ1 3:24176Touchdown3–7
TENQ1 3:1239Punt3–7
BALQ1 1:24961Touchdown3–14
TENQ2 11:421088Touchdown11–14
BALQ2 7:23475Field goal11–17
TENQ2 4:221260Field goal14–17
BALQ2 0:0810End of half14–17
BALQ3 15:00454Turnover14–17
TENQ3 13:3245Punt14–17
BALQ3 11:0851Touchdown14–24
TENQ3 9:18747Turnover14–24
BALQ3 5:42835Punt14–24
TENQ3 1:0839Punt14–24
BALQ4 14:28867Field goal14–27
TENQ4 9:14618Turnover on downs14–27
BALQ4 7:04453Touchdown14–34
TENQ4 6:02512Opp touchdown14–41
BALQ4 4:1200Opp touchdown14–41
TENQ4 4:12719Punt14–41
BALQ4 2:003-4End of half14–41

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair28/4828802
Neil O'Donnell3/52700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve McNair6335.50
Eddie George8324.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Wycheck1012870
Jackie Harris44520
Chris Sanders47500
Eddie George58440
Isaac Byrd24320
Rodney Thomas33260
Derrick Mason26180
Kevin Dyson1560
Michael Roan0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks18/3133240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes910011.10
Tony Banks188.00
Errict Rhett471.80
Chuck Evans551.00
Stoney Case3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail591130
Pat Johnson11761
Jermaine Lewis55722
Justin Armour38281
Chuck Evans11130
Priest Holmes12130
Billy Davis1190
Errict Rhett1280
Ryan Collins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

6.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.52