Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.091
- 40.1%Success rate36.5%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.0%Third-down rate28.4%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.52Points / drive1.00
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 28/48 | 288 | 0 | 2 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 3/5 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 10 | 12 | 87 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 18/31 | 332 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 9 | 100 | 11.1 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 5 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 5 | 5 | 72 | 2 |
| Justin Armour | 3 | 8 | 28 | 1 |
| Chuck Evans | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Billy Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Collins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
6.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52