1999 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

7·26

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

41

Model margin

+1.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge map49ers
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.036
  • 38.5%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.220EPA / rush-0.054
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.14
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SF
ATLQ1 15:00530Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:56822Punt0–0
ATLQ1 6:3534Punt0–0
SFQ1 4:59751Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 0:571163Turnover0–7
SFQ2 10:571485Touchdown0–14
ATLQ2 2:433-10Safety0–16
SFQ2 1:52741Field goal0–19
ATLQ2 0:4033Punt0–19
SFQ2 0:011-1End of half0–19
SFQ3 15:00520Missed field goal0–19
ATLQ3 12:14625Punt0–19
SFQ3 9:05630Opp touchdown7–19
ATLQ3 5:4100Opp touchdown7–19
SFQ3 5:41419Punt7–19
ATLQ3 3:403-10Punt7–19
SFQ3 2:5937Punt7–19
SFQ3 1:20517Touchdown7–26
ATLQ4 13:0853Punt7–26
SFQ4 11:22627Punt7–26
ATLQ4 7:0330Punt7–26
SFQ4 6:4038Punt7–26
ATLQ4 4:093-10Punt7–26
SFQ4 3:0748Turnover on downs7–26
ATLQ4 1:0627End of half7–26

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler8/189501
Tony Graziani1/91100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ken Oxendine7152.10
Chris Chandler11111.00
Winslow Oliver273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terance Mathis413580
Jammi German24240
Ken Oxendine11130
Rod Monroe1180
Chris Calloway0100
Winslow Oliver0100
Bryan Still0400

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia16/2416000
Steve Stenstrom1/2900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charlie Garner261074.11
Terry Jackson5244.80
Jeff Garcia3186.00
Travis Jervey263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charlie Garner56620
Greg Clark44460
Terrell Owens24210
Jerry Rice23170
Mark Harris1190
J.J. Stokes0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.81