Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.036
- 38.5%Success rate41.7%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.220EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 35.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
- 1.22Points / drive1.14
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 8/18 | 95 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Graziani | 1/9 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Winslow Oliver | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 13 | 58 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rod Monroe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Winslow Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Still | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/24 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Stenstrom | 1/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 26 | 107 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Travis Jervey | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81