Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
-2.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.002
- 46.1%Success rate45.4%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.021EPA / rush+0.004
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.99CPOE-0.74
- 45.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 2.20Points / drive1.97
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 29/41 | 296 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 8 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 8 | 11 | 83 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/14 | 129 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Huntley | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Drake London | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.45