2022 · Week 6

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

14·28

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

-2.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.002
  • 46.1%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.021EPA / rush+0.004
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.99CPOE-0.74
  • 45.1%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.97
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. ATL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF
2012 · playoffsSF @ ATL28–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001174Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 8:4636Punt0–7
ATLQ1 6:58629Punt0–7
SFQ1 2:59310Opp touchdown0–14
SFQ1 1:26879Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 11:3433Punt7–14
SFQ2 9:16432Touchdown14–14
ATLQ2 7:071265Touchdown14–21
SFQ2 0:57622Turnover14–21
SFQ3 15:0035Punt14–21
ATLQ3 13:52965Touchdown14–28
SFQ3 8:40519Punt14–28
ATLQ3 6:39618Punt14–28
SFQ3 2:40622Turnover14–28
ATLQ4 14:45615Punt14–28
SFQ4 10:4218100Turnover on downs14–28
ATLQ4 2:34520Punt14–28
SFQ4 1:04451End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo29/4129622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson7253.60
Jimmy Garoppolo3113.70
Deebo Samuel Sr.2115.50
Tevin Coleman430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle810830
Brandon Aiyuk811832
Deebo Samuel Sr.710790
Jauan Jennings23180
Jeff Wilson0100
Ray-Ray McCloud0100
Charlie Woerner0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota13/1412920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Caleb Huntley16593.70
Tyler Allgeier15513.40
Marcus Mariota6508.31
Avery Williams263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus44580
Drake London34400
Kyle Pitts33191
MyCole Pruitt1121
Avery Williams1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.45