2025 · Week 7

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

10·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Mac Jones

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge map49ers
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.091
  • 44.5%Success rate48.5%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.033
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.36CPOE+5.72
  • 33.5%Third-down rate50.4%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.48
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF
2012 · playoffsSF @ ATL28–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SF
ATLQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:08942Punt0–0
ATLQ1 8:342070Field goal3–0
SFQ2 12:54742Turnover3–0
ATLQ2 9:4653Punt3–0
SFQ2 7:581380Touchdown3–7
ATLQ2 1:4839Turnover3–7
SFQ2 1:2833Field goal3–10
ATLQ2 0:38357End of half3–10
SFQ3 15:001043Field goal3–13
ATLQ3 10:09648Touchdown10–13
SFQ3 6:2837Punt10–13
ATLQ3 4:18930Punt10–13
SFQ3 0:58631Punt10–13
ATLQ4 12:48848Turnover on downs10–13
SFQ4 8:161159Touchdown10–20
ATLQ4 2:26818Turnover on downs10–20
SFQ4 1:27219End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.21/3824110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson14402.90
Tyler Allgeier4164.00
Michael Penix Jr.263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney35680
Kyle Pitts710620
Bijan Robinson68521
Drake London410420
Casey Washington12170
Charlie Woerner0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones17/2615201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey241295.42
Brian Robinson9364.00
Mac Jones5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey78720
Jauan Jennings47310
Skyy Moore11150
Kendrick Bourne22140
Luke Farrell11110
Demarcus Robinson0100
George Kittle0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.36
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.79