Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.091
- 44.5%Success rate48.5%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.033
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.36CPOE+5.72
- 33.5%Third-down rate50.4%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.82Points / drive2.48
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 21/38 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Drake London | 4 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Casey Washington | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 17/26 | 152 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 24 | 129 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.36
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.79