Closing spread
SF -9.5
Total
48
Model margin
+5.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.085
- 41.2%Success rate45.5%
- -0.028EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.162EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- +0.85CPOE+1.73
- 38.5%Third-down rate40.6%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.58Points / drive2.30
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/32 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 8 | 12 | 91 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/23 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 21 | 110 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.31