2021 · Week 15

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

13·31

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -9.5

Total

48

Model margin

+5.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge map49ers
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.085
  • 41.2%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.162EPA / rush-0.024
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +0.85CPOE+1.73
  • 38.5%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 1.58Points / drive2.30
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF
2012 · playoffsSF @ ATL28–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SF
SFQ1 15:0000Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 14:53611Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ1 12:2738Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:01624Field goal3–0
SFQ1 7:121079Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 1:2168Punt3–3
SFQ2 13:30882Touchdown3–10
ATLQ2 9:14950Touchdown10–10
SFQ2 4:00761Touchdown10–17
ATLQ2 0:3320End of half10–17
ATLQ3 15:003-2Turnover10–17
SFQ3 13:21439Touchdown10–24
ATLQ3 11:11876Field goal13–24
SFQ3 6:281075Touchdown13–31
ATLQ3 1:1736Punt13–31
SFQ4 14:4339Punt13–31
ATLQ4 12:32558Turnover on downs13–31
SFQ4 10:3731Punt13–31
ATLQ4 9:361041Turnover on downs13–31
SFQ4 5:08943Punt13–31
ATLQ4 0:2113End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3223610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis6213.50
Matt Ryan5204.00
Cordarrelle Patterson11181.60
Qadree Ollison133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Gage812911
Kyle Pitts47770
Olamide Zaccheaus22530
Hayden Hurst2260
Cordarrelle Patterson2250
Qadree Ollison1140
Lee Smith0100
Mike Davis0100
Tajae Sharpe0100
Christian Blake0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo18/2323510
Deebo Samuel Sr.0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson211105.21
Deebo Samuel Sr.6294.81
JaMycal Hasty11313.00
Jimmy Garoppolo341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle66930
Deebo Samuel Sr.45600
Brandon Aiyuk12360
Jauan Jennings36281
Jeff Wilson2290
JaMycal Hasty1130
Trent Sherfield0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.31