2016 · Week 15

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

13·41

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -13.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+6.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.196
  • 39.6%Success rate49.5%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.169EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.0%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -5.73CPOE+6.59
  • 34.6%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.93
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. ATL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF
2012 · playoffsSF @ ATL28–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ATL
SFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:28647Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 10:3124Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 9:38550Touchdown0–14
SFQ1 7:403-1Punt0–14
ATLQ1 6:311160Touchdown0–21
SFQ1 0:40675Touchdown7–21
ATLQ2 12:45474Turnover7–21
SFQ2 11:06636Punt7–21
ATLQ2 8:00689Touchdown7–28
SFQ2 4:281364Touchdown13–28
ATLQ2 0:1300End of half13–28
ATLQ3 15:001022Punt13–28
SFQ3 10:1533Punt13–28
ATLQ3 9:19525Field goal13–31
SFQ3 6:29618Punt13–31
ATLQ3 3:58577Touchdown13–38
SFQ3 1:4238Punt13–38
ATLQ3 0:45839Punt13–38
SFQ4 10:51843Punt13–38
ATLQ4 6:15768Field goal13–41
SFQ4 1:09213End of half13–41

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick20/3318320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde13715.50
Colin Kaepernick3217.00
Shaun Draughn4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Blake Bell11450
Aaron Burbridge23290
Jeremy Kerley58280
Chris Harper33260
Garrett Celek26221
Je'Ron Hamm24130
Rod Streater23111
Carlos Hyde1360
Quinton Patton2230

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan17/2328620
Matt Schaub1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman201397.03
Tevin Coleman14584.10
Terron Ward6528.70
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aldrick Robinson451110
Taylor Gabriel36601
Mohamed Sanu33440
Levine Toilolo11300
Devonta Freeman22160
Justin Hardy12160
Austin Hooper1191
Tevin Coleman2280
Josh Perkins1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.64