Closing spread
ATL -13.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.196
- 39.6%Success rate49.5%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.169EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- -5.73CPOE+6.59
- 34.6%Third-down rate43.7%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.59Points / drive2.93
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 20/33 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Je'Ron Hamm | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/23 | 286 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 20 | 139 | 7.0 | 3 |
| Tevin Coleman | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrick Robinson | 4 | 5 | 111 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Perkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.64