Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
50
Model margin
+2.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.077
- 44.5%Success rate44.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.061
- 7.4%Explosive rate12.1%
- +2.32CPOE+2.34
- 41.8%Third-down rate45.8%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.01Points / drive2.28
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/39 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 13 | 20 | 134 | 2 |
| Russell Gage | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 22/34 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 13 | 17 | 134 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.81