2019 · Week 15

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

29·22

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -10.5

Total

50

Model margin

+2.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge map49ers
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.077
  • 44.5%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.061
  • 7.4%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +2.32CPOE+2.34
  • 41.8%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.28
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF
2012 · playoffsSF @ ATL28–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SF
ATLQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:003-5Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:31517Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:382283Touchdown0–7
ATLQ2 12:551170Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 7:0135Punt7–7
ATLQ2 6:13850Field goal10–7
SFQ2 2:36776Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 0:2400End of half10–10
SFQ3 15:00417Punt10–10
ATLQ3 12:3457Punt10–10
SFQ3 9:14625Field goal10–13
ATLQ3 5:14412Punt10–13
SFQ3 2:37439Turnover10–13
ATLQ3 0:33616Punt10–13
SFQ4 13:44622Punt10–13
SFQ4 10:4421Touchdown10–19
ATLQ4 10:071038Touchdown17–19
SFQ4 5:15750Field goal17–22
ATLQ4 1:481070Touchdown29–22
SFQ4 0:0200Touchdown29–22

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/3921020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12393.30
Matt Ryan5275.40
Brian Hill11616.00
Russell Gage166.00
Qadree Ollison111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones13201342
Russell Gage56270
Austin Hooper36200
Devonta Freeman23160
Luke Stocker1190
Kenjon Barner1240
Christian Blake0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo22/3420010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert14543.91
Tevin Coleman44010.00
Matt Breida4112.80
Deebo Samuel Sr.188.00
Jimmy Garoppolo263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle13171340
Deebo Samuel Sr.13290
Kendrick Bourne12110
Emmanuel Sanders2490
Matt Breida2260
Raheem Mostert1250
Tevin Coleman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.81