Closing spread
ATL -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play-0.091
- 46.4%Success rate38.8%
- +0.113EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.01CPOE-3.50
- 47.3%Third-down rate30.2%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.77Points / drive1.32
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/45 | 303 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 10 | 17 | 137 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 8 | 10 | 67 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 6 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 15/25 | 185 | 2 | 2 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Draughn | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Gaskins | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Patton | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 |
| Bruce Ellington | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36