2015 · Week 9

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

16·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

ATL -9.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge map49ers
  • +0.000EPA / play-0.091
  • 46.4%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.01CPOE-3.50
  • 47.3%Third-down rate30.2%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.32
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF
2012 · playoffsSF @ ATL28–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SF
SFQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:02846Field goal3–0
SFQ1 9:2435Punt3–0
ATLQ1 8:164-9Punt3–0
SFQ1 5:071284Touchdown3–7
ATLQ2 13:41731Punt3–7
SFQ2 9:0431Punt3–7
ATLQ2 7:33427Field goal6–7
SFQ2 6:05951Field goal6–10
ATLQ2 3:2040Punt6–10
SFQ2 2:25552Touchdown6–17
ATLQ2 1:16378Touchdown13–17
SFQ2 0:1300End of half13–17
ATLQ3 15:00711Punt13–17
SFQ3 11:08531Turnover13–17
ATLQ3 9:00733Punt13–17
SFQ3 5:05522Punt13–17
ATLQ3 2:25616Punt13–17
SFQ4 15:00617Punt13–17
ATLQ4 13:1153Punt13–17
SFQ4 10:23726Turnover13–17
ATLQ4 7:14966Field goal16–17
SFQ4 2:56522End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/4530310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12121.00
Tevin Coleman133.00
Matt Ryan122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones10171370
Devonta Freeman810671
Jacob Tamme610610
Roddy White12200
Justin Hardy44170
Levine Toilolo1110
Nick Williams0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert15/2518522
Colin Kaepernick0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Draughn16583.60
Blaine Gabbert8324.00
Kendall Gaskins7202.90
Pierre Thomas4123.00
Bruce Ellington177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quinton Patton35700
Torrey Smith24440
Shaun Draughn45380
Vance McDonald25190
Garrett Celek22122
Bruce Ellington2220
Jerome Simpson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36