Closing spread
SF -15.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.034
- 44.7%Success rate41.8%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.156
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.110
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- +2.86CPOE-1.63
- 42.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.70Points / drive1.99
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 37/48 | 348 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 12 | 15 | 141 | 1 |
| Drew Davis | 3 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 11 | 63 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 13/21 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 7 | 102 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| Kassim Osgood | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.38