2013 · Week 16

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

24·34

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -15.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge map49ers
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.034
  • 44.7%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.156
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.110
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +2.86CPOE-1.63
  • 42.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.99
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2012 · playoffsSF @ ATL28–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SF
ATLQ1 15:00610Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:35737Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 7:56623Punt0–3
SFQ1 4:01954Punt0–3
ATLQ2 14:18880Touchdown7–3
SFQ2 9:53516Punt7–3
ATLQ2 6:50727Punt7–3
SFQ2 2:2536Punt7–3
ATLQ2 1:41830Field goal10–3
SFQ2 0:0500End of half10–3
SFQ3 15:00778Touchdown10–10
ATLQ3 12:03427Punt10–10
SFQ3 9:291151Field goal10–13
ATLQ3 3:1632Punt10–13
SFQ3 2:12961Touchdown10–20
ATLQ4 12:34769Touchdown17–20
SFQ4 8:34676Touchdown17–27
ATLQ4 5:041275Touchdown24–27
SFQ4 2:0900Opp touchdown24–27
ATLQ4 2:09320Opp touchdown24–34
ATLQ4 1:10839Turnover24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan37/4834822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson16533.31
Jacquizz Rodgers3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White12151411
Drew Davis33700
Tony Gonzalez811631
Harry Douglas510460
Jacquizz Rodgers33150
Patrick DiMarco1120
Steven Jackson22-40

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick13/2119710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore21974.61
Colin Kaepernick6518.51
Kendall Hunter35117.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree571020
Anquan Boldin67721
Kassim Osgood11170
Frank Gore1160
Vernon Davis0300
Vance McDonald0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +15.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.38