Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-11.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapFalcons
- +0.190EPA / play-0.358
- 56.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.227EPA / dropback-0.638
- +0.142EPA / rush-0.113
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.0%
- +0.77CPOE-10.42
- 58.3%Third-down rate16.7%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.98Points / drive0.46
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-13.30
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-11.00