2026 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

20·29

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.153EPA / play-0.038
  • 52.5%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.265EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.001EPA / rush+0.001
  • 10.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.63CPOE-4.68
  • 51.0%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 88.6%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 2.81Points / drive1.93
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. ATL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF
2012 · playoffsSF @ ATL28–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ATL
SFQ1 15:001069Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 9:22415Field goal7–3
SFQ1 7:06618Punt7–3
ATLQ1 3:36310Punt7–3
SFQ1 1:35463Touchdown14–3
ATLQ2 14:541068Touchdown14–9
SFQ2 8:47838Turnover14–9
ATLQ2 4:201251Field goal14–12
ATLQ3 15:001059Touchdown14–19
SFQ3 8:59643Turnover14–19
ATLQ3 5:321570Touchdown14–26
SFQ4 14:551156Turnover on downs14–26
ATLQ4 11:30321Punt14–26
SFQ4 9:331162Touchdown20–26
ATLQ4 5:053-2Punt20–26
SFQ4 4:0236Turnover20–26
ATLQ4 2:3436Field goal20–29
SFQ4 1:56645Turnover20–29
ATLQ4 0:4700End of half20–29

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy27/4028812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kaelon Black12635.31
Christian McCaffrey7395.61
Jacob Cowing11010.00
Jordan James166.00
Brock Purdy252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle810880
Christian McCaffrey67610
Jordan Watkins36560
Jacob Cowing35380
Luke Farrell11140
Brandin Cooks13130
Jordan James11110
Kaelon Black13-40

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.25/3421330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson20633.10
Khalil Herbert294.50
Zachariah Branch188.00
Charlie Woerner133.00
Michael Penix Jr.5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London710661
Bijan Robinson55590
Kyle Pitts55221
Austin Hooper22210
Khalil Herbert11190
Charlie Woerner1190
Zachariah Branch1290
Jahan Dotson1360
Nick Muse2221
Chris Blair0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.11