Closing spread
PIT -1.5
Total
36
Model margin
+3.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.063
- 36.5%Success rate41.6%
- -0.084EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- 28.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 40.6%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.00Points / drive1.27
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.151EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 8/26 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 130 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Chuck Evans | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 6 | 11 | 258 | 3 |
| Billy Davis | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Justin Armour | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Collins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Nash | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomczak | 22/41 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1/1 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Tomczak | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 4 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 6 | 10 | 64 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.40
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.54