1999 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

31·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mike Tomczak

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -1.5

Total

36

Model margin

+3.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.063
  • 36.5%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.084EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.048
  • 7.5%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 28.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 40.6%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.27
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.151EPA / play allowed-0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:00763Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 12:28568Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 11:121368Field goal7–10
BALQ1 4:1132Punt7–10
PITQ1 3:0732Punt7–10
BALQ1 2:0430Punt7–10
BALQ1 1:09941Field goal10–10
PITQ2 13:5535Punt10–10
BALQ2 12:2175Punt10–10
PITQ2 9:36420Punt10–10
BALQ2 6:57414Punt10–10
PITQ2 4:5734Punt10–10
BALQ2 2:4840Punt10–10
PITQ2 1:1130Punt10–10
BALQ2 0:4421End of half10–10
BALQ3 15:00576Touchdown17–10
PITQ3 12:47749Touchdown17–17
BALQ3 9:30360Touchdown24–17
PITQ3 8:28319Punt24–17
BALQ3 5:32488Touchdown31–17
PITQ3 3:19942Missed field goal31–17
BALQ4 13:394-4Punt31–17
PITQ4 11:05726Punt31–17
BALQ4 8:0850Punt31–17
PITQ4 5:441054Touchdown31–24
BALQ4 2:45426End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks8/2626830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes181307.21
Chuck Evans122.00
Tony Banks600.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail6112583
Billy Davis1370
Chuck Evans1130
Justin Armour0700
Ryan Collins0100
Greg DeLong0100
Marcus Nash0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Tomczak22/4124920
Jerome Bettis1/12110
Kordell Stewart1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley8688.50
Jerome Bettis13393.00
Mike Tomczak122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kordell Stewart46711
Troy Edwards610641
Hines Ward35431
Mark Bruener24330
Bobby Shaw48300
Malcolm Johnson11180
Jerome Bettis45110
Richard Huntley0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.40
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.54