Closing spread
GB -8
Total
42
Model margin
+2.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.016
- 42.4%Success rate40.8%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.154
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- 38.5%Third-down rate36.6%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.98Points / drive1.48
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.053EPA / play allowed-0.019
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:22 | 12 | 61 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 5:23 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 2:31 | 3 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 3–7 |
| GB | Q1 1:38 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 1:38 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 14:14 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 12:19 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 12:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 10:52 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 5:27 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| CAR | Q2 1:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–14 |
| GB | Q2 1:04 | 6 | 37 | End of half | 10–14 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 38 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| GB | Q3 14:39 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| CAR | Q3 8:23 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| GB | Q3 4:27 | 14 | 71 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| CAR | Q4 11:05 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 27–24 |
| GB | Q4 7:48 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 27–31 |
| CAR | Q4 4:00 | 13 | 63 | Touchdown | 33–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 29/42 | 373 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Jeffers | 8 | 9 | 147 | 2 |
| Wesley Walls | 6 | 8 | 96 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 13 | 51 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Fred Lane | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/38 | 302 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basil Mitchell | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 9 | 46 | 1 |
| Basil Mitchell | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.32